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Wednesday, December 23, 2015

My Concern about Trump: A Scenario

Trump is now leading in the GOP polls, by as much as 20 percent over his Republican rivals.  One way of making ourselves feel not that worried about this is to point out that polls are not the same as ballots cast in an actual election, and polls have been wrong before.

So, what would happen if Trump were to lose the first few Republican primaries, despite leading in those states by sizable margins in the polls?   Again, a common prediction, that makes those who oppose Trump feel better, is that faced with such results, Trump would fold up and go home.  His ego would not allow him to continue in the race as a loser.

But what if his ego leads to another result?   Imagine Trump losing in Iowa, then in New Hampshire, then in South Carolina.  His supporters would go ballistic.  They might well scream that those elections had been rigged - that the votes were wrongly counted against Trump by the GOP establishment.

What would Trump's response be to such a groundswell of rage?  Would he tell his supporters, no, they need to calm down and accept the reality that Trump had lost?  Again, that is what we'd like to think, but -

Let's say Trump, still riding high on the adrenalin of all that vocal support, decides to buy into what his supporters would be screaming - that the elections he had lost had been rigged?  With his billions of dollars, he could go to court, and petition the courts to overturn the primary results.

Eventually, that could well go to the Supreme Court, which would need to hear those cases in a hurry.And, as in the election of 2000, the Supreme Court would again be in a position to decide on the American Presidency - who would next hold the office.

Far-fetched?  Probably ... maybe ... but it did happen once before.

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