Tuesday, April 22, 2008

First Pennsylvania Returns: Too Close to Call = Obama Wins Whatever the Final Numbers

First reports on MSNBC, based on exit polls, say the Democratic race in Pennsylvania is too close to call.

This means that, whatever the final results, Obama will make progress towards the nomination tonight. Even if Hillary Clinton gets a victory, it won't be anywhere nearly enough to stop Barack Obama from getting the Democratic nomination.

What does this mean in terms of what we've seen in the past few weeks:

1. Either Obama did fine in last week's debate (as I said in a blog post here), or debates don't matter much between Clinton and Obama at this point.*

2. Polling techniques need improvement. Calling voters on landlines, when many younger voters have only cell phones, does not make sense any more in our mobile age. (Exit polls are usually done in person, and so the cell phone problem doesn't arise.)*

*But see my Final Pennsylvania Results where I admit my errors on these points...

And I'll be back later when more returns come in. An exciting night for democracy!
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