Rothman goes on to point out that Motorola's RAZR sold 50 million in its first two years. He think Jobs is likely right that the iPhone won't achieve that, and attributes the slower growth to iPhone being perceived as being in the "smartphone" category, which has lower sales than more general cell phones.
I think that's an astute assessment - but I disagree.
First, a little background.
The evolution of media never runs smooth, and in fact is often wildly unpredictable when it comes to diffusion of new media into the general population. The telephone itself took 75 years to get into more than 50 percent of American homes - that didn't happen until the 1950s. In contrast, television was in 90 percent of American homes by the end of the 1950s - just 10 years after its commercial introduction.
The reasons that some technologies catch on much more quickly than others vary. In the case of the telephone, the problem was that your phone did you no good unless people you wanted to talk to also had phones. The telephone, in other words, lacked the necessary social infrastructure at first - it had to be built, from the ground up. In contrast, once you had a television set, it didn't matter whether your friends and sister across town also had one. And the social structure of simultaneous, instantaneous mass media - of sitting in your living room every night and being entertained, with countless anonymous others entertained in their living rooms - had already been constructed by radio.
I'm predicting sales of iPhones will go through the roof, and defy expectations. The reason: the iPhone's infrastructure is already here, and robust. It is the Web, and all the services on it. All the social, economic, political, aesthetic, cultural, etc doings of the Web are grist for the iPhone.
It's a trip not to an uncharted land, but to a city already open for business and teeming.... It is now the best of telephone, and will soon be the best of television.
See also - Hats off to George Hotz ... iPhone Arrives - I Predicted It in 1979 and iPhone Boosts Literacy and iPhone: Not Better iPod But New Species of Media ... Nano iPhone and the Dymaxion Principle ... Harry Potter and iPhone ...
and ... I'll be talkin' iPhone on my weekly KNX1070 Sunday interview, 7:20am Pacific time, July 8
The Plot to Save Socrates
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